PS5  

It wouldn’t quite be a podcast in 2020 without some next gen console speculation and don’t worry we have you covered. This week Bloomberg ran a story by takahashi mochizuki about the PS5 and the apparent manufacturing cost which might help indicate what the launch price will be based on their Sony’s history making PlayStation. 

In the past few weeks a story surfaced that Sony was waiting on Microsoft to list the price for the Series X to determine what the price of the PS5 will be. Im sure they have a price that they are planning to launch at currently, but the question becomes are they happy with what they plan or will they have to slash the price in order to look more competitive with word that Xbox Series X will be a premium console. I didn’t mention it because there wasn’t much else to the story other than Sony was planning a wait and see approach. That approach did work well for them last generation as they waited for Microsoft to announce some features including the ability not to resell games or share them and Sony responded with a viral clip of how easy it was to share games on the PS4. It took years for Microsoft to recover from that messaging which they backtracked based on the outcry from fans. 

The story this week is that production cost on the PS5 is close to 450 dollars per unit. According to the article the PS4 launched at 399 with a production cost of around 380.  It’s typically been how things work in the console industry was that you don’t make profit on the console. Even in some cases the console itself is a loss leader that drives people into the ecosystem where they then purchase the games and services which have a much higher profit margin. Based on how they priced their last console at launch you would assume that 499 would be the most likely landing spot with the rumored Xbox Series X likely taking a higher price point. 

According to people familiar with the situation “The company’s biggest headache is ensuring a reliable supply of DRAM and NAND flash memory, with both in high demand as smartphone makers gear up for fifth-generation devices”

The article also went on to say that the next generation of PlayStation doesn’t seem to be affected or delayed caused by the recent outbreak of CoronaVirus which has caused some major manufacturing trouble for other companies including Nintendo and Tesla. 

One thing that interested me a lot from the article that didnt seem to make waves is that Sony, is actually working on a successor to the PSVR. The next version of PSVR sounds like it won’t be at launch but shortly after the PS5. I would be all for a PSVR2 as the original peripheral hit the mark and sweet spot between price, quality and content. My issues with the system were all the wires it needed as well as the clunky hand controls the move wands offered which lacked the precision of their competitors. With Firewall Zero Hour being the first VR game to be free and includied with the PS PLUS offerings this month, it’s possible that Sony could be building up momentum for the PSVR 2 and giving people access to an instant library of great PSVR games would be a smart move. 

Sony has also been receiving pressure from investors regarding their plans for the PS5. As much as they would like to let Microsoft make the first move, they are up against the wall to some extent when it comes to their investors and projections they will need to make soon. Q4 will be ending at the end of March and their earnings report will most likely be around a month after that will a full FY2020 report being released shortly after that. It’s the second of these reports that will need to explain to investors what the plan is for the next fiscal year, what quarter the system will be released in, how many units they will be manufacturing, how many units they are planning to sell and many more questions of that nature.  This all means that Sony and Microsoft will announce a lot of their next generation details around the same time. This is going on the basis that we aren’t going to see any reveal events for either console before then.  

E3 2020

One thing we know about Sony and the PS5, is that they will officially not be attending E3 2020. Well it’s seems as though you can add Geoff Keighly to that list as well. Understandably, this is not an E3 related announcement with the same gravity as Sony not attending but it still warrants mentioning. 

Keighly, a longtime industry media figure made his announced on Twitter "For the past 25 years, I have attended every Electronic Entertainment Expo. Covering, hosting, and sharing E3 has been a highlight of my year, not to mention a defining part of my career. I've debated what to say about E3 2020. While I want to support the developers who will showcase their work, I also need to be open and honest with you, the fans, about precisely what to expect from me. I have made the difficult decision to decline to produce E3 Coliseum. For the first time in 25 years, I will not be participating in E3. I look forward to supporting the industry in other ways and at other events in the future."

Keighly, then openly responded to questions on Twitter regarding his decision and the most headline worthy response was “I just don't really feel comfortable participating given what I know about the show as of today” 

This makes it sound clear that with all the ESA has been saying about how they plan to have some great new activations, experiences and queuetainment, in order to keep E3 relevant, Keighly doesn’t like the new direction.  I could be wrong but production of The Game Awards seems like a huge undertaking that most likely has wheels turning all year. That, in addition to his latest project at Valve and all the work his has been doing on the behind the scenes content regarding Half Life Alyx and you have a very full plate. In life you can always squeeze things in if you are truly invested or passionate about them but if the ESA is taking a new approach to the conference that he doesn’t agree with then it makes the decision a lot easier. 

In response to Keighly, the ESA publicly came out to announce commitments they already have from 10 big companies. I saw this from an article by Brendan Sinclair on games industry dot biz.

The ESA has stated that they have received commitments from several outfits, including Xbox, Nintendo, Ubisoft, Bethesda Softworks, Sega, Capcom, Square Enix, Take-Two Interactive Software, Bandai Namco Entertainment America Inc., and Warner Bros. Games.

We already knew that Microsoft would be present as Phil Spencer came out publicly after Sony announced their decision to skip the event to say they plan on having a big show. The other nine companies attending is good news for gamers and for the ESA but coming out with an announcement like this feels like they are trying to do damage control. 

Older companies and establishments such as GameStop and E3 are being forced into a new mode where they either can adapt or they can become extinct and the clock is ticking. The ESA has brought in outside help to evolve the show and this year will be very telling if they are able to retain relevance or if all of their changes come off as nothing more than trying to monetize everything. 

NPD January 2020

This week we got our first taste of sales in the gaming market for 2020. As this year has been off to what feels like a slower start than most years without any surprise January hits like Resident Evil 2 or Dying Light of years past the charts looked as expected. This means they looked similar to how they ended 2019 without much change and also whatever new games released would see increased popularity due to the demand for new experiences. All of this information can be found in depth on Mat Piscatellas YouTube channel.

With a slow start for releases combined with entering a year that will see new consoles hit the shelves, overall spending in the gaming market was down a huge 26 percent vs January of 2019. For most months of this year total spending will most likely be trending downwards as people save for the next gen.

Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot was the best selling game of the month, despite the fact that it didn’t receive the best critical reviews. In terms of launch month sales this game ranks third when compared to other entries in the dragon ball series, which goes to show you exactly how flat the sales are for the gaming market. Modern Warfare gave up its reign at the top of the charts as it became the second best selling game of the month. 

In accessories, the Xbox Elite Series 2 controller was the best selling accessory of the month. Clearly people weren’t tightening their budgets at the start of this year after the holidays.  Reviews for the series 2 have been great and saw it improve in almost every way that it could have from the original. Sales have most likely also been helped with the fact that you will be able to use the controller with the Xbox Series X. This controller is premium priced and the last thing you would want is to spend that kind of money on an accessory that you can only primarily use for less than a year.

It’s also doubly impressive as recent speculation out Xbox One as the lowest selling console from the three this generation with Switch most likely surpassing it recently. Not to get off on a tangent too far but this is why I think the Series X will be 599 due to the fact that Microsoft has seen success on multiple occasions this generation when providing customers with a premium option in both quality and price. Instances including the two elite controllers and the Xbox One X.

Anthem

Last year we talked about a story from Jason Schreier, of Kotaku, regarding the road Anthem was taking and how it was going to hopefully try the No Mans Sky or FF14 method. Similar to the precedent those games have made by mending bridges after a broken launch, BioWare would call it Anthem 2.0 or Anthem Next. The article even had inside sources claiming that this deep undertaking had already been underway for a few months at the time of publishing. 

Although since then we haven’t heard anything official from BioWare or EA. EA has basically pretended like the game didn’t exist. At their last earnings report EA discussed many of their past catalogue even including deep cuts like the 2014 Sims 4, and they even had praise for Star Wars Battlefront 2. They didn’t mention Anthem once regarding any sales metrics or even discuss its possible future that we read about. 

This week Casey Hudson, BioWare General Manager, wrote a lengthy blog post on the BioWare site breaking the silence and explaining where Anthem will hopefully go. “I am so proud of the work the team has put into this game, and at the same time there’s so much more that we – and you – would have wanted from it” Casey’s starts the blog by saying 

Casey continued by saying “We have also heard your feedback that Anthem needs a more satisfying loot experience, better long-term progression and a more fulfilling end game...and it will require a more substantial reinvention than an update or expansion.  Over the coming months we will be focusing on a longer-term redesign of the experience, specifically working to reinvent the core gameplay loop with clear goals, motivating challenges and progression with meaningful rewards – while preserving the fun of flying and fighting in a vast science-fantasy setting”

While none of this information is ground breaking it’s great to hear an official announcement from someone at the studio. It’s also great news that they are aware of what was great in the game and what was lacking in the game. 

At the end of it all, a large question remains why is Anthem worthy of the time and effort. I think that boils down to trying to help preserve the BioWare image that has been tarnished, especially with the release of Mass Effect Andromeda and now Anthem. EA paid a lot of money to invest into BioWare and with multiple studios with hundreds of people working on whatever is coming after Anthem, EA would like to make sure that their reputation won’t affect future sales. 

EA has also been known to pull the plug on something when it isn’t working whether that be a game such as Andromeda, which could have used post launch help or NBA Live which attempted a comeback or even a few Star Wars titles that didn’t see the light of day. EA is also no stranger to closing down studios when the numbers don’t add up as they have closed Marquee studios including Visceral, Pandemic, Maxis and Westwood just to name a few. I’m hopeful that whatever people could have been kept became integrated into other studios but EA is a publicly traded company and some harsh decisions have to be made when financials don’t line up. 

This brings things back to Anthem and either the IP means a lot to EA which it most likely does not since it was the first entry or they have faith in future BioWare projects to put these resources into Anthem so that it looks like BioWare is a studio that can still be trusted no matter what the game is. There is also the outside possibility that Anthem really turns the corner and the positive word of mouth starts generating big sales for the game similar to FF14. However, we are also left with many questions unanswered including when we might see Anthem 2.0 and more importantly what will the cost be.