Switch Pro 2021

This week, Bloomberg ran another story regarding the often rumoured, beefed up Switch that we have been hearing about for some time now. Whether it’s called the Switch Pro, the Switch XL, the New Switch or something else, it certainly seems like it is coming sooner or later. Nintendo is a company that has a formula and when that formula works well, likes to repeat it. Which is why before jumping right into the latest speculation of the Switch iteration, it seems like a good idea to look at the companies recent history to give us a better understanding of what is to come.

Blue Ocean

Nintendo has been known for the blue ocean strategy since the success of the Wii, an underpowered and seemingly gimmicky system. However, that didn’t stop it from becoming one of the companies best selling systems ever because it was extremely fun and different. It occupied its own space in blue ocean waters. Nintendo didn’t invent the term but it did popularize it. According to author W. Chan Kim, you are creating uncontested market space and making the competitor irrelevant. Breaking it down into simple terms, a red ocean is a very competitive market with lots of blood in the water from too many sharks swimming around and competing over the same chum. This would be Sega and Nintendo for many years in the early 90’s, Nintendo and PlayStation in the late 90’s and even today Xbox and PlayStation. These companies are all essentially competing for the same customer with a very similar product.

A blue ocean is looking at what area in the market is free of competition. Nintendo realized this in the early 2000’s with the release of the Wii, that offered something very different from what Microsoft and Sony were offering. They are still following this strategy to this day with the Nintendo Switch, a console that doesn’t compete on power but instead on the flexibility of having a system that can be used interchangeably used as a handheld and a home console.

Nintendo Handheld

Since April 21, 1989, Nintendo has basically been a two pillar company that splits focus on handheld and home console with the introduction of the Gameboy and its subsequent iterations. This method has obviously worked excellent for the company as the handhelds that Nintendo has released have all gone on to become massive successes. The original Gameboy sold almost 120 million, which is even more impressive when you factor in that in the late 80’s and early 90’s gaming wasn’t cool like it is today. The GBA didn’t do as well as the original but still sold a little over 80 million. The biggest hit of Nintendo handhelds was the DS which would go on to sell over 154 million units. Following in the same pattern of GB to GBA the 3DS sold just over 75 million, which is great numbers but not as good as the predecessor.

Even though Nintendo still has a dedicated handheld in production, The New 2DS XL, gaming production has all but come to an end. The main reason they keep the New 2DS XL around is because it offers consumers a very cheap way to get into the Nintendo ecosystem as the handheld only sells for around 100 bucks at retail, if you can find one.

As the Nintendo Switch became such a great hybrid system, it essentially cannibalized the handheld market. Leaving the Nintendo Switch as the main handheld system for the company, especially if you consider the Switch Lite. The question is what patterns can be found from their past iterations on handhelds that might give us a better idea of release timing and features that could be coming to the Nintendo Switch.

The original DS was introduced in November of 2004 and would follow it up with three iterations all spaced two years apart. Two years after the release of the original DS, Nintendo released the DS Lite, two years after that released the DSi and two years after that released the DSi XL. The introduction of the 3DS, seven years after the release of the DS, in March of 2011 started a new system and a new cycle of iterations. This one is a little trickier to find a pattern due to the release of the 2DS in 2013 and having parallel iterations on the hardware, but generally it looks to be about every two years.

As for what iterations Nintendo has made with broad strokes with their history of handhelds the first change to the DS was the DS Lite, which as the name states was lighter, slimmer but also included a brighter screen, and a better battery. The DS Lite would account for almost two-thirds of total DS sales with almost 95 million units. The third iteration of the DS would be the DSi which would include cameras but removed the GBA port. The first iteration of the 3DS was the 3DS XL which was essentially a pro version with bigger screens, more removable storage, and better batteries.

Switch Iterations

The critical and commercial success that is the Nintendo Switch launched in March of 2017. About two and a half years later, the first revision of the system was released in September of 2019 with the Switch Lite. Unable to be docked, a smaller screen and the joy-cons are permanently attached. Looking at Nintendo’s past they either take two roads; they either make the handheld lighter and smaller while removing some functionality. The other path they take is to create a pro version or XL version, which includes better tech and bigger size than the original. Nintendo has already taken the path of the lighter and less functional system with the Switch Lite. This leaves one likely scenario for the next iteration of the Switch and that brings us to the story from Bloomberg.

The article starts off by saying that Nintendo is likely to step out of the way this holiday for Sony and Microsoft with their next generation consoles. Covid 19 seems to have affected Nintendo more than Microsoft and Sony. Stepping out of the way this holiday also fits in line with the blue ocean strategy that Nintendo has been following for decades now. Customers attention will likely be on the next generation consoles with all the power and features they will have. Nintendo trying to compete would be a waste of money as the Switch would look very underpowered. When we all know that Nintendo does not focus on power but instead the experiences they can create.

The article has stated from inside sources that the system is not likely to enter production until next year due to the fact that the current manufacturing is “busy with making the current models” since they are still trying to match the demand for the Switch that we have seen in 2020 so far. Assuming that the average time from start of production to store shelves is around 3 months we are looking at a minimum of March 2021.

Anonymous sources from Nintendo said that this iteration will likely include “ 4K high definition graphics and more computing power” All of this information isn’t that surprising as we have been hearing speculation about a stronger Switch for a while now. It also fits inline with Nintendo’s past iterations with their handhelds and since we have already seen Switch Lite in late 2019, it seemed inevitable that we would get a Switch pro. Based on their past it seems unlikely that all we will get is a 4K display and increased power as it most likely will include better components. It would be nice to bluetooth headphones as an option to name an improvement that I would like to see. 2021 also falls in line with their pattern of every second calendar year of releasing an iteration.

It seems like 2020 has been a great year for Nintendo in a business sense. I am sure they would have preferred to have a more regular cadence for gaming releases but with the release of Animal Crossing, Paper Mario and Xenoblade Chronicles that have all seen a different amount of success things could be worse. In terms of hardware, despite manufacturing disruptions from Covid 19, Switch and Switch Lite consoles have been flying off the shelves all year. Nintendo entered the year with a share price of just under fifty and currently has a value of just under 70, which is an increase in value of around 40%.

2021 - The Year of Nintendo

Looking at factors like Covid 19 and next generation consoles from the competition, it makes sense that Nintendos release schedule for premium, first party titles has been as dry as the WiiU days. The good news is that that unlike the WiiU, Nintendo is likely to support the Switch in a similar format to the DS which has been backed by Nintendo for almost 15 years.

At this rate and with a DS level of support Nintendo is likely to surpass Wii sales and might even surpass the DS sales, which is the best selling Nintendo system of all time. The other bit of good news is that it sounds like the dry spell this year should be offset by a monsoon of games next year. According the article, the Switch pro “ would be coupled with, or followed by, a slew of games from Nintendo itself and related studios” This approach of new, first party software combined with a reinvigorated hardware would likely keep the momentum going with Switch sales. The Switch Lite which launched in late 2019 has amassed 8.82 million units sold as of the end of June 2020, which is pretty decent considering that the system has been on the market for less than a year and already accounts for around 15% of the total Switch sales.

The most likely candidate to launch with a new and powerful Switch that would give people a reason to either buy a Switch for the first time or to upgrade from their day one system would be Breath of the Wild 2 or whatever the sequel will be titled. The article also states slew which leaves the door open for more than just the next entry in the Zelda series. Likely candidates could be the next entry in the Mario Kart series as there hasn’t been an original entry since 2014 or possibly the remastered Metroid Prime trilogy that would help satiate fans until Metroid Prime 4 as we are likely still a few years away from seeing the final product since the game was restarted in early 2019 Even a new 2D Metroid in the vein of Samus Returns style would be a massive hit as we have seen giant success from similar style games like Hollow Knight, Dead Cells and Ori.

The list goes on and on when you are trying to determine what games from Nintendo and third party would be part of the “slew” The mind starts to wonder if the Switch gets a much stronger version then maybe it has the capabilities to run games that would seem unfathomable today on the Switch. Something along the lines of Cyberpunk 2077 comes to mind with a stronger Switch and we have already seen the CD Projekt Red bring over The Witcher 3. Yes, the port was handled by a different studio and yes, it wasn’t the best version of the game but the sacrifices made to make an experience like that portable is worth it to some.

Nintendo Handheld North American Release Dates

DS - November 21, 2004

DS LITE - March 2, 2006

DSi - November 1, 2008

DSi XL - March 28, 2010

Nintendo 3DS - March 27, 2011

3DS XL - August 19, 2012

2DS- October 12, 2013

NEW 3DS -September 25, 2015

NEW 3DS XL - February 13, 2015

NEW 2DS XL - July 28, 2017 - (only model still in production)