Where are the Mario Sports Games?

Nintendo has experimented with a lot of different games over the past four decades but one genre that seems to be an afterthought are the Mario Sports titles. None of the Mario sports titles including Golf, Tennis, Soccer, and Baseball games have been developed first party from Nintendo. Instead they have been developed by third party studios including Bandai Namco who developed the baseball series, Camelot who developed the golf and tennis, and Next Level Games who did the soccer series.

The need to develop the Mario Sports titles in house is not a necessity, as we have recently seen some great additions to the Switch Library that prove third parties are very capable of handling Nintendo’s sacred IP including Next Level Games, with Luigi’s Mansion 3 in 2019 and Camelot who released Mario Tennis Aces in 2018. Both of these games sold quite well with Luigis Mansion 3 selling 6.33 in the fiscal year that it was released and Mario Tennis Aces selling 2.64 million copies in around the first 9 months that it was released. Coincidentally both of these studios are the teams behind some of the long dormant franchises in question, which begs the question, what are these studios working on?

I understand Nintendo’s hesitance on giving the green light to some of the sports titles due to their previous sales figures or more accurately, lack thereof. In the past five Nintendo systems including the Switch, Wii, WiiU, DS and 3DS, there is not a single Mario Sports title that manages to make the top ten list. It goes without saying that this does not include Mario Kart, as that series has become a Goliath which is developed in house and does not fit in the same sports genre of these other games. These other titles are trying to become mainstream, whereas Mario Kart has been mainstream since the SNES.

However, I think with people trying to figure out what system is most like the Wii, there is plenty of room for new addition in these franchises, especially with the ability to use the Joy-Cons for motion controls. Nintendo has also seen multiple examples of their audience looking for games that are fitness centric. Ring Fit Adventure has likely sold above expectations, Jump Rope Challenge has recently received an extension likely due to its popularity and Fitness Boxing, which is published by Nintendo clearly did well enough as there is a sequel coming at the end of 2020. However, there may jut be a better boxing option for Switch owners.

Mario Golf

My personal choice of the Mario Sports titles is the Mario Golf Series. I have always been a huge fan of the Hot Shots Golf series, which is now Everybody's Golf here in North America. The first Mario Golf was released for the N64 back in 1999 right before the will-ennium. Developed by Camelot Software in 1999, using the same engine and the same studio that made Hot Shots Golf in 1997, which basically makes Mario Golf a re-skin.

This could the reason that Sony stopped using Camelot to develop the Hot Shots Golf series and instead switched to Clap Hanz, who took over for Hot Shots Golf 2 and has been actively developing the series since 1999. The only other reason was that Camelot didn’t want to be pigeonholed into only making Hot Shots Golf Games but I have to imagine that the former reason is more accurate.

We are now entering the fourth decade for Mario Golf titles with the first being published in 1999, not including NES Open Golf. Sadly, only two entries for home consoles have been published with the Mario Golf for the N64 in 1999 and Mario Golf: ToadStool Tour for the GameCube in 2003. Unfortunately, the last entry in the series was back in 2014 with Mario Golf: World Tour for the Nintendo 3DS. Now that Nintendo has essentially put all of its eggs into the Switch basket, the chances seem much greater that we will see the first Mario Golf game for a home console in almost twenty years.

This brings us full circle back to Camelot Software, who are the small team behind every Mario Golf game released. Since 1999, Camelot has exclusively released games on Nintendo platforms with all but one game being published by Nintendo. For some reason, We Love Golf for the Wii was published by Capcom, with the possibility that Nintendo might have felt it was too similar to some of their pack in sports titles with the system. The other thing is that Camelot Software stays busy for a small group of just over 40 employees, since 1999, Camelot has released 19 titles, which is an average of almost one game per year.

The interesting thing is two fold, with the first being that they haven’t released a game since 2018, which they have never released games more than two years apart. They are a smaller studio that needs to ship games in order to keep the lights on. I may not be an economist but I do know that without an influx of funds a company will go out of business, which is why there is almost no universe where Camelot doesn’t release a new game in 2021.

The other thing to note is that Camelot’s last game was actually Mario Tennis Aces for the Switch and that was released in June of 2018. Mario Tennis Aces featured the usual Nintendo sports fare, where the game is very easily accessible but deep to master. Mario Tennis Aces was also a success across the board. Critically, the game scored an 8 or above from many outlets including Game Informer and Nintendo Life. It received two nominations from The Game Awards for “Best Family Game” and “Best Sports Game” and it was a commercial success.

When Nintendo reported their fiscal year earnings Mario Tennis Aces had sold 2.64 million copies. This might not seem like a very high number when measured against recent success from games like Animal Crossing: New Horizons but nearly three million is a great accomplishment. Even taking an extreme rough calculation with the majority of those copies selling at full price in the first year, 3 million multiplied by 50 bucks a game equals one hundred and fifty-million which is without a doubt a massive commercial success with minimal marketing.

Even going one step farther at the time of reporting, Nintendo only had around 34 million Switch consoles sold compared to the most recent figures of around 62 million. When you extrapolate the 7.6 percent attach rate that Mario Tennis Aces had you are looking at around five million in sales during its first year if it was released now. That would put it just outside of the top ten which is only around seven and a half million.

Based on Camelot’s track record of games out of the 19 games that they have developed for Nintendo since 1999, fifteen of them were either Tennis or Golf games. Considering that they have a formula that works well for them and their last game was Mario Tennis Aces, it would be easy to see Camelot announce a new Mario Golf in 2021.

Super Mario Strikers / Next Level Games

When looking at Next Level Games, the studio behind Super Mario Strikers and Mario Strikers Charged, things are a little harder to understand. Those two games were released all the way back in 2005 and 2007, which does mean the series is long overdue for a comeback. However, unlike Camelot Studios, who have basically only worked on tennis or golf games for Nintendo, Next Level Games have been developing all sorts of games

Unfortunately, Next Level Games is a smaller studio in a similar size to Camelot of around 50 people, which means that seeing multiple titles is highly unlikely. The likelihood that the next, Next Level Game being Super Mario Strikers is low. Their last game might have a large bearing on what the studio does with their next game because Luigi’s Mansion 3 was a delight. Similar to the Camelots last game, Luigis Mansion 3 was likely the studios biggest and best game to date. It has an average critical score of around eighty six, while receiving nines from many outlets and unlike Mario Tennis Aces that was nominated for “Best Family Game” at The Game Awards, Luigi’s Mansion 3 won the award in 2019.

If awards and critical acclaim aren’t enough, Gooigi managed to sell almost six and a half million copies in its first six months according to Nintendo’s annual earnings report that ended March 31, 2020. That is very impressive sales figures, especially for a non first party title that has only seen three entries over nearly twenty years. Next Level Games took over the developing from Nintendo after they released the original back on the GameCube in 2001. It’s likely that Next Level Games made a pitch to resurrect the series in 2013 with Dark Moon for the 3DS and followed up with the massively successful Luigis Mansion 3, which had an almost 11 percent attach rate.

There is one final black sheep that has a small possibility of happening and that is Punch Out! There have been many arcade versions and spin-offs in the Punch Out series and even a replacement of it’s title character but there haven’t been many mainline releases. There was the NES original back in 1987, Super Punch Out for the SNES in 1994 and Punch Out!! for the Wii in 2009. Similar to how Next Level Games took over the reigns for the Luigis Mansion series with the second game, they also took over developmental duties from Nintendo first party in 2009 with the Wii release.

Next Level Games has made a great portfolio for taking loved but forgotten about Nintendo IP and inserting them into Nintendo’s culture as a mainstay. Back in 2014, Eurogamer spoke with Next Level Games and they confined that they would be exclusively working with Nintendo, which makes them a second party developer. Punch Out for the Wii didn’t sell greatly as that information is hard to find but it did well critically, scoring a ten from Giant Bomb, 9 from Game Informer, and 9 from Nintendo Life.

The motion controls of the Wii were a perfect fit for the series, however, Wii Sports had a boxing mode that was included and that game was a pack in which is very hard to compete with free. Punch Out on the Wii also featured an art style and animations that didn’t rely on the power of a system and made smart decisions including a very minimalist crowd design that allowed the all the power of the system to be focused inside the ring. Punch Out for the Wii still looks great today to the point that even a remastered version for the Switch would hold up.

That was back in 2009 and since then the series has been dormant, although with over thirty years passed since the NES release, it might be a perfect release on the Switch due to nostalgia and motion controls. As mentioned fitness boxing clearly has to be doing well enough to warrant a sequel, especially considering that it is being published by Nintendo.

Next Level Games released Luigi’s Mansion 3 at the end of 2019, which does seem like an eternity ago but when you consider the size of their team, the realistic time frame of when we will see a new game from the studio would be 2022 at the earliest. As much as it would be great to see a new Punch Out on the Switch or a Mario Strikers games, it just doesn’t make fiscal sense. Both of those series have been dormant for over a decade now and would likely require more marketing and there is a risk that if they didn’t sell extremely well with their last entries, then they won’t sell well this time around either.

When you have a success on the level of Luigi’s Mansion 3, it is hard want to do anything else but follow it up with a sequel. Considering the team already has most of the assets that they would use for Luigi’s Mansion 4, I dont see a world where the next game for Next Level Games isn’t a Luigi’s Mansion sequel.

Bandai Namco / Super Mario Sluggers

Trying to figure out if there is any possibility of Bandai Namco reviving the Super Mario Sluggers franchise is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. The company develops games for every system, in every genre and is much larger in size than Next Level Games and Camelot Software combined

Super Mario Sluggers fared poorly with the critics as Game Informer gave it a 5.5, Giant Bomb gave it a 4 and even Nintendo Power only gave it a 7.5. Once again trying to compete with the baseball game in Wii Sports didn’t make a lot of sense unless you really offered something much greater then what was already free

The original Mario Superstar Baseball for the GameCube fared much better critically 8’s and 9’s from many outlets. It already had originality going for it and wasn’t competing with Wii Sports but finding sales figures for the series back on the GameCube is nearly impossible. It has to be assumed that it did well enough to justify the sequel on the Wii.

With Bandai Namco being almost 2000 employees large, the chances of seeing a new entry in Mario Baseball is almost non existent. Looking at their portfolio of games since the release of Super Mario Sluggers in 2008, it just doens’t make any sense for them to take an unnecessary risk. When it comes to their work with Nintendo, they are more than busy with their work on Super Smash Brothers Ultimate and whatever comes next for that series.

Looking Fore-ward

Considering that Nintendo has merged their handheld audience and their console audience into one mega audience, things become more straight forward when trying to figure out what’s next. The bad news is that I don’t expect to see a new Super Mario Strikers or Super Mario Sluggers game anywhere in the near future if ever. Sluggers didn't move the needle commercially or critically to justify a sequel and a new entry just doesn’t fit into Bandai’s portfolio. EA basically has a monopoly on the world of soccer games and Next Level Games have two much better bets for their next game.

There is some good news though, as there is a great chance that we will hit the links again in the mushroom kingdom and see Mario Golf in 2021 and I personally can’t wait. It just fits perfectly in line with the patterns that Camelot follows, along with their pedigree of making either golf or tennis games. There is also a 50/50 chance that we will get to step into the ring with Little Mac again with Punch Out in 2022.

Next Level Games is either going to follow up Luigi’s Mansion 3 with a sequel or they will give the series some time to breathe and release a follow up to their Wii success Punch Out!! from 2009. Keeping in line with Nintendo’s mantra over the past few decades, there is blue ocean ahead for Mario Golf and Punch Out games.