Does New Nintendo Switch Mean Super Mario Odyssey 2
Will Switch 2 Launch With 3D Super Mario?
As amazing as Super Mario Wonder is, I am still someone who prefers Super Mario in 3D and this got me thinking about all of the talk of the upcoming new Nintendo console or Switch 2 that sounds like it will surely release in 2024, but the big question is will there be a new 3D Super Mario game at launch with Super Mario Wonder having just released?
Outside of rumours and speculation, the first thing to do is to look at history of new Nintendo consoles and how many of them launched with a new Mario.
Looking at the data, which includes almost all mainline home consoles and most handhelds except for the ones that were iterations, 7 out of 11 times (64%) that Nintendo launched a console, there was a new Mario game to go with it.
NEW CONSOLE PLUS MARIO DOESN’T EQUAL SUCCESS
Although Nintendo has made it a frequent habit of releasing a new console with a new Super Mario, one thing to note is that success of the system isn’t necessarily tied to having a Mario title on launch. The Nintendo 64 launched with one of the most revolutionary titles in gaming history with Super Mario 64, but the system only managed to sell 32 million, and the WiiU launched with New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe, but only sold 13 million, which was by far the companies worst selling console.
On the other hand, Nintendo Switch didn’t launch with a new Super Mario, but is currently the second best selling Nintendo console of all time with over 132 million units. The 3DS also didnt launch with a Super Mario title and ended up selling almost 76 million units, although Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 launched within the first year.
The point is that even though there is a higher frequency of Nintendo launching a console with a new Mario, which does indicate strong chances of a new Super Mario at the launch of Switch 2, there are too many other factors to consider about the success of the console including what the competition is doing and what the main selling feature of the system is.
When you combine the precedent that Nintendo has set since 1983 with the release of Super Mario Bros on the original NES, with the speculation from people in the industry, it would certainly seem like the Super Switch or Switch 2 will try to avoid mistakes of their past and launch with a 3D Super Mario game.
Switch 2 Launch Candidates
As mentioned 7 out of 11 consoles have launched with a new Mario game but if you include marquee characters, then you get 10 out of 11 (91%) with the inclusion of Luigi’s Mansion for Game Cube, Twilight Princess on Wii and Breath of The Wild on Switch.
This means there is a very high percentage that Nintendo Switch 2 will launch with a high profile game and since we just got Tears of The Kingdom, it likely won’t be Zelda, which leaves us to figure out the possible candidates which are Luigi’s Mansion 4, Super Mario Odyssey 2 and Mario Kart 9. There is also the long gestating Metroid Prime 4, but Metroid as a series just isn’t a system seller. The best selling entry in the series is Metroid Dread, which is the most recent release in the series and it only has sold slightly over 3 million. As much as I love the series, it might not be as safe as the other three candidates.
We have discussed how the development of Luigi’s Mansion is done by Next Level Games and they are very consistent with releasing a game every 3 years at most. Their two most recent games included LM3 in 2019 and Mario Strikers: Battle League in 2022. After being acquired by Nintendo, it doesn’t seem unfathomable that Nintendo could lend a hand in development to expedite LM4 to be ready for the launch of the Switch 2. The only reason that Nintendo might not feel confident about launching the Switch 2 with Luigi’s Mansion 4 is because the Game Cube launched with the original Luigi’s Mansion and that ended up being the second worst selling Nintendo console of all time, only second to the WiiU.
Mario Kart 9 seems like a perfectly plausible release as the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe released in 2017 and was a deluxe version of a game that released on the Wii U back in 2014. There was the booster course pack that was a great value and added some life to the series with new courses and characters, but that has run its course.
The final candidate is Super Mario Odyssey 2. The big counterpoint is that Nintendo just released Super Mario Wonder, but according to Andy Robinson of VGC he has been led to believe from his sources that wonder was developed by a “younger team” when speaking on the August 1 edition of the VGC Podcast. It has also been 7 years since Nintendo released a new 3D Super Mario game, which leaves this a strong possibility.
Our personal hope is that it will be Super Mario Odyssey 2 as that is our choice for best Mario game of all time. Despite this, we still thought of six ways that Nintendo could improve Super Mario Odyssey 2. There is also the chance that Nintendo wants to guarantee success and decided to launch The Switch 2 with all three of these titles.
DATA
NES - Super Mario Bros
SNES - Super Mario World
Gameboy - Super Mario Land
N64 - Super Mario 64
Game Cube - No Mario - Sales 21 million - Luigis Mansion
Wii - Wii Sports and Twilight Princess
Wii U - New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe
DS - Super Mario 64
Switch - Breath of The Wild
GBA - Super Mario Advance
3DS - Pilotwings Resort ? Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 months later