Does The Super Mario Bros Movie Mean A New Mario Game Is Coming in 2023?

The Super Mario Bros Movie is releasing on April 7, 2023, and it got me wondering if Nintendo will release a new Super Mario game to coincide with the moving hitting theatres. The simple answer is that there should be considering that the last brand new Super Mario title we got was back on October 27, 2017, which by the time the movie gets released will be over five years or almost 2000 days (1988) since the last original Super Mario title.

Brand new Super Mario titles have released at an average of every 2.5 years or so since 1985, which means a new entry is overdue. Yes, there has been Super Mario Maker 2 and Bowsers Fury, but those aren’t full, original entries in the core lineup.

The other way to try to get an indication if a new Super Mario game is going to release sometime near the release of the movie is to look at the history of Nintendo and theatrical releases to see if there is any precedent.

The Wizard 1989 (December 15, 1989. Box Office Approx. 15 Million)

Nintendo hasn't had too many worldwide theatrical releases based on their games but there were three examples that I thought were relevant to this. Starting back in December of 1989 was The Wizard with Fred Savage. This might not have been based specifically on a game but the movie was clearly meant to be a marketing tie in to the release of Super Mario Bros 3 which would come out just a few months after and likely while The Wizard was still in theatres.

Movie Tie-in: 100%

Super Mario Bros - (May 28, 1993. Box Office Appox 40 Million)

This isn’t the movie that many 5-10 year olds were happy with. With a review average of around 30% and a budget of around 40-50 million, Super Mario Bros lost about ten million dollars and with the tagline “This Ain’t No Game” they weren’t kidding. In this case, its probably for the best that the next Super Mario title wasn’t until 1996 with the release of Super Mario 64.

Movie Tie-in: 0%

Detective Pikachu (May 10, 2019. Box Office Approx 433 Million)

Nintendo’s last entry was a pretty huge success. Using the Pokemon IP and the voice of Ryan Reynolds as Pikachu proved to be a huge success and likely gave Nintendo confidence to continue the pursuit of trying to make more movies based on their IP. Pokemon Sword and Shield released in November, just six months later, which would have been right around the time the movie was available for streaming and home purchase. The game has gone on to sell 24.5 million units, which could partially be attributed to the additional exposure from the movie.

Movie Tie-in: 50%

New Mario Game in 2023?

Sadly, with such a small sample size, we are left with an answer of 50%. There is a decent chance that we will get a new Super Mario Game for the Switch but there is just as much of a chance that we won’t get a new release.