Will the next Super Mario be 2D or 3D?

Will the next Super Mario be 2D or 3D? Anyones guess is as good as mine, but I am a firm believer in history repeating itself. Let’s look at some data to see if there is any indication of what we might get from Nintendo for the next Super Mario adventure.

Super Mario Odyssey, which is my personal choice for the best Super Mario of all time coming from someone who collected popsicle stick points to get Super Mario Bros 3. Odyssey came out in 2017, meaning that we are now going on six years since the last series release.

There have been 22 releases in the series since 1985, which means that we are well overdue for a new instalment. Out of the 22, 68 percent of those games were 2D and when looking at the best selling Super Mario from each console was 2D 60% of the time.

The best selling 2D Super Mario game is exactly what you would expect with the original Super Mario Bros on the NES from 1985. Super Mario is one of the best selling video game series of all time and just looking at the best selling entry per system, there is over 200 million copies sold, but only around 48 million or a quarter of the total sold were 3D.

3D or Not To Be?

One stat that would lean towards the next game being 3D is that on Nintendo’s last two consoles, the Switch and the WiiU, the best selling Super Mario game on each system has been 3D. This could indicate a change in the audience’s preference or a change in Nintendo’s approach.

Looking at history and sales, it certainly looks like 2D Super Mario is drastically more popular, but what if we change our perspective just a little? The other way to look at this would be to figure out what has happened since it was possible to have Super Mario in 3D. Removing all consoles before the N64, we are now left with seven and now 60% of the time, the best selling Super Mario game on each console was 3D.

The last time 2D was the best selling was back in 2012 with New Super Mario Bros 2 for the 3DS. Looking at all of the data and then looking at how it all looks when viewed at a point when there was the option for 3D, I would say that the next Super Mario game will be 3D.

If the next Super Mario is 3D, then the big question is will it be a follow up to Galaxy or Odyssey? The answer would likely be Super Mario Odyssey 2, because not only is it the best selling 3D Super Mario title of all time with around 24 million at the moment and growing but it also has more sales than both Super Mario Galaxy games combined with around 20 million.

Of course the third option is something completely new. With little to nothing known about Nintendo’s plans for 2023 after Tears of the Kingdom, it’s possible we get a new Super Mario game in late 2023. We got both a Zelda and Super Mario in 2017 with Super Mario Odyssey coming out late October. With the movie coming out this year and Nintendo needed a holiday push, it starts to make a lot of sense.

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Switch - Super Mario Odyssey 24.40

WiiU - Super Mario 3D World - 5.88

3DS - Super Mario Bros 2 - 13.41

Wii - New Super Mario Bros Wii - 30.32

DS - New Super Mario Bros 30.80

GC - Super Mario Sunshine - 5.5

N64 - Super Mario 64 - 12

SNES - Super Mario World - 20

GB - Super Mario Land 18

NES - Super Mario Bros - 40